Professor Jacques Poot
Professor at University of Waikato
Biography
Jacques Poot has been Emeritus Professor of Population Economics at Te Ngira Institute for Population Research, University of Waikato, since 2018. He is also an Honorary Professor in the School of Accounting, Finance, and Economics at the same university.
Before joining the University of Waikato in 2004, Jacques held academic positions at Victoria University of Wellington—where he obtained his PhD in 1984—the University of Tsukuba in Japan, and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam. He has also held visiting appointments at institutions such as the Australian National University, the East-West Center in Honolulu, and the University of London’s School of Advanced Study.
Jacques is an elected Fellow of several international scientific organizations and was recipient of the NZIER Economics Award in 2013. He has been a principal investigator in several large-scale, multidisciplinary research projects in both Europe and New Zealand. His research spans international and internal migration, the economics of cultural diversity, local labour markets, regional development, housing markets, and forecasting. He has also contributed to the advancement of methodologies for meta-analysis in social and economic impact assessment.
Jacques remains actively engaged in research at the intersection of economics, demography, and regional science, contributing to both academic scholarship and the evidence base for policy discussions.
The economics of negative population growth: global to local perspectives
The global population is expected to peak by the 2080s (but quite possibly earlier)—after adding another two billion people to today’s eight billion. Natural decrease (more deaths than births) is becoming increasingly common, especially in high- and middle-income countries, and in many regions. Sub-replacement fertility (now widespread), rising longevity, and ageing populations are transforming demographic landscapes, with profound economic implications. While some pro-natalist policies modestly influence fertility rates, they rarely reverse demographic decline. Population ageing—both numerical and structural—has far-reaching economic consequences, including slower productivity growth, shifting consumption patterns, labour market imbalances, rising fiscal pressures, and growing intergenerational tensions. Migration offers only partial and temporary demographic relief and is politically constrained in many countries. East Asia’s reliance on automation and artificial intelligence to manage demographic pressures is likely to spread globally. Urbanisation continues to dominate spatial patterns, although some post-COVID counter-urbanisation and the emergence of digital nomads offer modest localised shifts. Aotearoa New Zealand exemplifies many of these global trends, shaped by its distinctive geography, high internal and international mobility, and growing ethnic diversity—especially with one fifth of the population being Māori and close to 30 percent foreign-born. Demographic change is highly predictable at global and national levels but more volatile locally. Ignoring it risks poor policy responses and missed opportunities. This keynote reflects on how economic perspectives contribute to a better understanding of population dynamics and its consequences—from the global down to local communities.